Here it goes - I'm calling it:
This year, 2015, we have to see an update to Apple TV. This update must be both in hardware and in software.
The hardware can come either in the form of an updated set top box, or our can be the long rumored full-on Apple Television we've been hoping for. What it looks like essentially doesn't matter. What matters is that it will have an A8 system on a chip and 1-2 GB of RAM minimum. The A8X from iPad Air 2 wouldn't be a bad thing, though.
The software could definitely use a more modern face-lift, but that's not the most important thing for now. What we absolutely need to see is an App Store so that developers can take advantage of the space. What makes any product, but Apple products in particular, great is what they enable you to do with them. An app ecosystem open to developers is vital to this, and is the biggest reason we've seen iOS and Android take off in recent years. And yes, this App Store likely means games on Apple TV (because it certainly means the potential for games: and where there's potential, there are apps taking advantage of that potential).
The only way around these upgrades is for Apple to do something like they are doing with CarPlay, where the device responsible for AirPlay-ing to Apple TV handles the processing, and Apple TV just acts as a wireless display adapter. Or, Apple could come up with some other crazy, Apple-style optimizations and blow our minds. Essentially, the hardware needs to get more powerful, the OS needs to get easier to run, or our iPhones/iPads/Macs need to be offloading the computing from the device.
But of course, it's possible none of these update will happen. The consequence for these updates not happening is that Apple TV will fail to remain relevant in the streaming/set-top-box world. Playing the AirPlay card to justify Apple TV's superiority has worked so far, but Android 5.0 has achieved this ability with Chromecast, so it's not as cut and dry of an argument as before.
So, I'm calling it: we will see a major update to Apple TV this year, or it will fade into obscurity. Apple TV can no longer afford to be Apple's hobby device.
Do you think we'll see an Apple TV update this year? How will that manifest? Do you even care about Apple TV anymore? Do you even care about set-top boxes or streaming devices anymore? Let me know in the comments.